What the Trump Verdict Really Means for the Election

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It didn’t take long after Trump’s guilty verdict for both major political parties to claim a win: Republican operatives calling it a naked political overreach that would garner sympathy for Trump, and Democratic operatives saying people will be reluctant to vote for the convicted felon.  

 This binary misses a lot of complexity in people’s attitudes: 

• Most Americans think Trump is guilty, but don’t think the crime is that serious

• Some Republican voters (10%) say they are less likely to vote for Trump while his base is more motivated than ever. 

• Most voters say — despite the media frenzy — that what happened in the New York courtroom won’t alter their vote.

In situations like these where everyone’s selling something — including the media, with its tendency toward hyping everything —  it’s difficult to figure out the actual significance beyond the blather. So I’ve pored over the available polling data (please become a paid subscriber so I can keep doing work like this!), and what it shows is public attitudes are much more complex than what the mouthpieces for team red and blue would have you believe. And though the media is covering this polling data, their pretense of objectivity allows them to avoid reading between the lines, which can yield some striking conclusions as it does in this case.

Here’s what I found.

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Most people think Trump is guilty — including two in ten Republicans

Just before the verdict, one poll said that 22% of Republicans polled said they thought Trump was guilty of a crime.  There’s no equivalent poll yet for Republican voters after, but another poll says that only about 10 percent of Republicans say they are less likely to vote for Trump after his conviction. That’s probably the best insight into the disaffected silent minority: Republicans who don’t like Trump but will likely not vote for Biden. 

A vast majority of Democrats (93%) think Trump was guilty, while voters who call themselves independents (53%) think so. Pre-trial and post-trial, 2024 seems pretty much the same battle for the elusive center.

But people don’t think the crime was that serious

Lock him up? Not according to the voters.

The vast majority (69%) of voters think Trump’s punishment should just be a fine without jail time.  This suggests a more nuanced attitude voters have about Trump’s conduct, which they clearly think was illegal but not grounds to drop the hammer. You don’t generally favor a fine for a major crime.

It’s not surprising, then, that while only 21 percent of Americans think Trump did nothing wrong, a larger number (29%) think what he did was unethical but not illegal. 

This dimension matters because virtually all of the mainstream reporting focuses on a binary question of Trump’s guilt, with much less attention to the perceived magnitude of the crime.

People don’t feel hopeful

Liberal quarters in Washington have by and large responded to the verdict with a chorus of The System Works. Democratic Congressman Jamie Raskin, for example, in an MSNBC interview declared the verdict “a great victory for the justice system within liberal democracy.” He and others of his ilk trumpet the rule of law but that’s not necessarily how the people see it. Polling shows that the result of the trial isn’t inspiring much hope — even among people who said the verdict was right.

While half of Americans who believed the verdict was right said they felt “glad” (51%) and “relieved” (50%), just 31% reported feeling “hopeful.” 

It’s not hard to see why they feel uneasy, with Trump having threatened dozens of times to exact retaliation against his political adversaries in particular for the various investigations into him. 

Here are some of the threats Trump has made:

• “IF YOU GO AFTER ME, I’M COMING AFTER YOU!”

• “‘Justice’ Weaponization is a very dirty game to play, and it can have repercussions far greater than anything that Biden or his Thugs could understand …This is a Pandora’s Box, that works two ways, and it should be closed and tightly sealed RIGHT NOW. Withdraw your Political Indictments and Lawsuits, Joe, before it is too late!”

• “You’re setting a BAD precedent for yourself, Joe. The same can happen to you.”

People feel as though the other shoe hasn’t dropped. And they’re probably right.

Don’t believe the hype

Something the liberal and conservative mainstream media agree on is how profoundly, staggeringly important the verdict is. Such an incantation — a close cousin of “This is the most important election in history” — certainly helps with clicks and ratings. But the polling suggests otherwise.

Polling consistently finds that most Americans weren’t paying attention to the trial, with 55% saying they didn’t follow it much or even at all. 

None of this is to say the trial doesn’t matter. It’s the first time in U.S. history that a former President has been criminally prosecuted, of course that’s newsworthy. But there’s just no evidence that this will have any kind of dramatic effect on the presidential election. 

In fact, 67% of registered voters said the verdict would have no effect whatsoever on their vote.

And while 10% of Republicans say they’re less likely to vote for Trump following his verdict, it has also galvanized some of his supporters. This is reflected in the Trump campaign’s announcement that it had raised a record-breaking $52.8 million from small donors in the 24 hours since his conviction. After 48 hours, that stands at $70 million, according to the RNC. 

So what the trial means is complicated. I just wish the media would admit that.