Trump Secretly Greenlit Iran War

Israel wants regime change; the U.S. is fine with that, sources say

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Donald Trump is lying about almost everything regarding Israel and Iran.

Trump knew that Israel was going to attack Iran, knew the basic outlines of the strategy, and implicitly gave the U.S. okay.

Trump also quietly (and enthusiastically) embraces Israel's unstated goal of “regime change,” two high level U.S. officials involved in the internal discussions tell me.

Trump hasn’t officially “approved” anything, hasn’t committed anything to paper, and hasn't signed off on any specific act. But in the dance of phone calls and back channel messages and things said and not said, the two countries found agreement. Trump has given Israel a green light by not saying no. 

This is the world of statecraft at the highest level, where leaders say one thing and do another. This is not only for “deniability” sake or to intentionally mislead the public. It’s just the way of the world that includes a set of rules and workarounds that allows leaders to never be frank.

There are massive risks involved in Israel’s campaign, and in America’s implicit support, but in the ways of national security, we just don’t get to discuss them. 

It all started during the Biden administration, the two knowledgeable insiders tell me, when Israel first pitched America on the campaign playing out now. Fearing escalation and things spinning out of control, fearing the United States getting dragged in, fearing Iranian civilian deaths, Biden “vetoed” Israel’s plan, that is, under the table and off the record, in the shadow world of deniable diplomacy.

Washington’s lack of assent meant that direct action to operate outside the context of the Hamas war off the table. Instead, Israel in 2024 carried out a spate of assassinations of extremely high-level adversaries. First, Israel killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Then they bombed an Iranian embassy building in Damascus, killing high-ranking Iranian generals. Israel carried out the devastating pager operation and killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.

Nobody expected these operations to be as successful as they were, which emboldened Israel.

On April 1, 2024 Iran attacked Israel in a massive and unprecedented missile and drone attack. Quietly, the U.S. military helped to defend its number one ally. The Arab states looked the other way. The Iranian attack was largely thwarted which, sources tell me, came as a surprise to the U.S. government and further emboldened Israel. Even so, Joe Biden didn’t want a broader war and the risk it entailed. So he kicked the can down the road to Donald Trump.

None of this, of course, began in 2024. Iran and Israel have been engaged in a tit-for-tat shadow war for years, with Iran arming Hamas and other Israeli adversaries. This culminated in Hamas’ October 7 attack in 2023, a traumatic event that could not have taken place without Iran’s long standing support and funding.

That shadow war is what’s at the background of all of this, not Iran’s nuclear capabilities, the hobbyhorse of a Washington unwilling to deal with the reality of the decades-long war and the absence of our own policy for finding peace with Iran.  

What has changed since 2024 is Donald Trump. Trump has dropped the Biden administration's use of the word “ironclad” to describe U.S. support for Israel, and the president openly favors better relations with the rich autocratic Arab states.

And yes, there’s the additional factor that the president thinks he can negotiate anything and everything. But as he has pursued nuclear talks with Iran, he’s also warned of the consequences if those talks failed. 

“The president has made clear that Iran cannot have uranium enrichment,” Vice President Vance said today. “And he said repeatedly that this would happen one of two ways — the easy way or the ’other’ way.”

In reality, while the negotiations commenced, in secret chambers involving just a handful of principal officials, Trump and his closest advisors talked about Israel’s long-standing “plan.”.

A hint of these discussions appeared this past weekend, when Trump told the Wall Street Journal that his team had foreknowledge of Israel’s plans.

The lesson Israel took from 2024 is that Iran might be able to bloody its nose, but not destroy it or the region. Not now, anyway. Israel also assesses that its many attacks on Iran’s proxies, the emergence of a new Syrian regime, the “failure” of the nuclear talks, and, of course, its precise intelligence on Iran’s leadership, makes this the best moment to act.

“We now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran,” Trump blurted out today — his use of the word “we” a tell that he is fully behind Israel.

It will take awhile for the military and the bureaucracy (and of course Congress) to catch up. The news media will be filled with stories about the contradictions of this and that, about how close Iran was or wasn’t to acquiring a nuclear weapon, about World War III and how toppling the Iranian regime is just the next Iraq or Libya. Right up until “it” happens, whatever it will be.

“Everyone should evacuate Tehran!,” Trump said Monday. 

President Trump has been unusually tight-lipped about Israel’s military campaign. Asked Monday about the possibility of regime change, the normally loquacious Trump said simply, “I want to see no nuclear weapon in Iran; and we’re well on our way to making sure that happens.” Pressed further at the G7 (before the president walked out) about what he “knew,” he answered totally out of character that he didn’t want to talk about that.

Israel has not yet “officially” said that its goal is regime change — that’s part of the game as well — but with much of Iran’s military leadership eliminated in a lightning-fast series of strikes since Friday, Israel’s objectives clearly extend beyond just halting their nuclear program. According to the IDF, as of yesterday, Israel has struck more than 865 targets (really aimpoints at targets, not targets themselves). The IDF says that 20 plus senior military commanders have been eliminated. Israel is also attacking Iranian missile launchers and it says it has already eliminated 120, a third of Iran’s force.

Aware of Israel’s desire to mount a stronger attack, Trump publicly said that he wanted 60 days to negotiate with Iran.

“I had 60 days, and they had 60 days, and on the 61st day, I said, we don’t have a deal,” Trump said during a press conference yesterday.

Israel didn’t ask. Trump didn’t say no. Israel waited and prepared even more, timing the execution of its campaign for precisely when the talks faltered.

By laying out a deadline like that, Trump was signaling to Israel, without explicitly saying so, that the United States would then not oppose Israel launching their military campaign. In discussions with the uniformed military at the highest level — I’m told only a half dozen generals were involved in the discussion — everyone agreed that it was wise to keep the U.S. at arm’s length from Iran’s reprisal in order to best serve U.S. interests. (Trump also didn’t want to antagonize his Arab friends like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, who have publicly come out in support of Iran.)

The desire to minimize blowback on America is clear in the Trump administration’s public messaging. Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a brief statement on Thursday saying little more than that Israel’s action was “unilateral” and that “We are not involved in strikes against Iran…” 

The statement closes with a warning: “Iran should not target U.S. interests or personnel.” 

“The president has shown remarkable restraint in keeping our military's focus on protecting our troops and protecting our citizens,” Vance said today. “He may decide he needs to take further action to end Iranian enrichment. That decision ultimately belongs to the president.”

Indeed it does, and that decision is formulating as Trump works himself into a lather. “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER,” Trump posted today, all caps and all in. At least for now.

It is a hellish world, when this dance of carefully worded statements, obfuscation, and even denial reign supreme. Trump, Vance, and Rubio are all lying, but then that’s the strategy. 

— Edited by William M. Arkin