Military Preparing Attacks on Mexican Cartels
Secret orders target cartels as the new terrorists
The Trump administration has directed the military to prepare for lethal strikes against cartel targets inside Mexico, three military sources tell us. The Top Secret planning order, issued in late Spring, directs Northern Command (NORTHCOM) to manage the attacks, which are to be ready by mid-September.
Though U.S.-Mexico military relations are broad and cooperative, any military action south of the border is considered extremely sensitive for both Washington and the Mexican federal government and is rarely discussed in public.
“Not only is Donald Trump uniquely focused on TCOs [transnational criminal organizations, the official name for cartels], having designated them terrorists in one of his first Executive Orders, but he has shown himself to be willing to take unilateral action despite potentially negative political ramifications,” says one senior intelligence official. He and the other sources say that military action could be unilateral — that is, without the involvement or approval of the Mexican government.
The unprecedented order was discussed at a July meeting at NORTHCOM headquarters in Colorado Springs that was led by Colby Jenkins, the unconfirmed Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low-Intensity Conflict. Within days, Gen. Gregory M. Guillot, commander of NORTHCOM, hosted the two highest ranking Mexican military officials: Gen. Ricardo Trevilla Trejo, Secretary of National Defense, and Adm. Raymundo Pedro Morales Ángeles, Secretary of the Navy.
"Today, more than ever, the challenges we face demand a joint, coordinated, and adapted response," Morales said after the Colorado visit, trying to impress upon Pentagon and military leaders that any potential operation be conducted by the two nations together.
To address the extreme political sensitivities and to honor Mexico's sovereignty, operations inside Mexico have previously been conducted by the CIA and the Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC), the clandestine arm of the U.S. military that has been involved in targeted killings in the Middle East. The New York Times has reported that the CIA has increased reconnaissance operations over Mexico with its own drones, another indicator of increased preparations for operations.
“NORTHCOM was previously sidelined in any Mexico planning, the conventional special operations components mostly involved in joint training with their Mexican counterparts and non-lethal missions such as at-sea interdictions of shipments, but now it is being tasked to be the hemispheric synchronizer, of a far larger magnitude” says the senior intelligence official. One reason is that prospective attacks also have to coordinate with the intelligence community at large, the FBI, and various homeland security agencies (such as Border Patrol and ICE) who all now are focused on Mexico (and are conducting their own operations inside Mexico).
NORTHCOM is already involved in Mexico in a host of ways, including in combating the cartels. Gen. Guillot alluded to this in recent testimony to Congress, where he said that his cooperation with Mexico is already closer than at any point in history.
“It is already apparent the military-to-military relationship between the United States and Mexico is robust and expanding as both nations address the challenges posed by common threats to our citizens and shared interests. The bonds between USNORTHCOM and our Mexican military partners are broad, resilient, and focused on expanding our combined capability to defend and secure North America from myriad state and non-state threats. Countering competitor influence in the region remains a key priority for USNORTHCOM and our Mexican military partners, and as a direct result, the U.S. and Mexican militaries are more operationally compatible than at any point in our shared history.”
That’s the overt side: countering Chinese influence and investments in Mexico, thwarting Russian influence (and operations); and stemming the flow of drugs, precursor chemicals and even weapons of mass destruction components through Mexico.
Now, NORTHCOM has tasked its subordinate Special Operations Command (called SOCNORTH) to undertake “operational preparation of the battlespace” inside Mexico to set the stage for future military operations, and to prepare cartel-related “target packages” for potential strikes and “direct action” attacks on the ground against high-value individuals, compounds, and supply chain targets associated in particular with the Sinaloa Cartel and the Jalisco New Generation Cartel. Direct attacks could also involve air and drone strikes.
“Direct action” is a term special operations forces use to describe small-scale offensive operations carried out by Army Green Berets, Navy SEALs, or Marine Corps raiders. Think of the airstrikes on Iran this summer as a kind of direct action, against a discrete target with a “strategic” or national purpose.
There is one major difference when it comes to Mexico: the political sensitivities involved. Unlike Iran, Mexico is a rich country which, of course, borders the U.S. and cooperates with it in countless ways. Independence from America is a major issue domestically, not to mention the large Mexican-American population.
In congressional testimony by Gen. Guillot, he has also addressed increased NORTHCOM intelligence collection.
GUILLOT: Recently we've been permitted to increase our ISR [Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance], our intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance to —
SEN. ROGER WICKER: Permitted by Mexico?
GUILLOT: No, by the department, sir. But we do have intelligence sharing with Mexico to show them what we see. And we have increased cooperation with Mexico to go address the cartel violence in terms of sending more troops.
It is by no means clear that Mexico City would ever approve any type of U.S. military action inside the country. In 2023, former Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador took the controversial step to ask the Mexican legislature to approve increased operations (which was described as “training”) by the Army 7th Special Forces Group. Those operations commenced in February, when a small group arrived in Mexico to train their counterparts.
Jenkins, the Acting Assistant Secretary told Congress after the brief deployment that “SOCNORTH’s training of our capable Mexican SOF [Special Operations Forces] partners are critical to … denying cartels or other criminal organizations their desired end states.”
When Trump declared the cartels’ trafficking of drugs and people into America an “invasion,” he wasn’t joking. Far from a rhetorical flourish, it’s by now clear that the language he’s using has created the basis for the military to prepare to respond to cartels in a similar way that it did with terrorists after 9/11.
“We have to start treating them as armed terrorist organizations, not simply drug dealing organizations,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said of the cartels in a recent interview.
Trump, military sources also tell me, is focused on results, willing to ignore law, rules, and even policy recommendations in his zeal to have “progress” towards his goals with regard to national security. For the White House, the fentanyl crisis in America is one of the key measures of the success of the new war on the cartels.
Fentanyl’s death toll represents a crisis, having claimed the lives of over 225,000 Americans.
In a tense exchange, Chairman of the Armed Services Committee Sen. Roger Wicker pressed Gen. Guillot on what progress his command was making on fentanyl, stressing its death toll. Guillot replies, “I wouldn’t say it’s better.”
WICKER: So, because time is limited, we had 225,000 in a three year space. Are we making any progress? Now it's 2025. Has it gotten better?
GUILLOT: No, I, I wouldn't say it's better, but I do think, Chairman, that we have a better foundation now that we've increased the intelligence to, to make a rapid progress against this threat.
WICKER: It definitely needs to get better. And so tell us what you need and, uh, thank you for your efforts. You got eight seconds.
GUILLOT: More, uh, more ISR [Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance] is the first. And then, uh, expanded authorities would be required to, uh, um, more advise and assist types of operations between our forces and the tier one Mexican forces.
(“Tier one” being another term for the clandestine special operations forces, Guillot is here referring to Mexico’s equivalent to Delta Force and SEAL Team 6 under the JSOC, called Fuerza Especial de Reacción.)
The intelligence community’s annual threat assessment released in March put an unprecedented emphasis on cartels, casting them as “the most immediate and direct threat to America’s security.”
“Western Hemisphere-based TCOs [transnational criminal organizations] and terrorists involved in illicit drug production and trafficking bound for the United States endanger the health and safety of millions of Americans and contribute to regional instability,” the assessment reads. The document specifically mentions several cartels based in Mexico, including Sinaloa and New Generation Jalisco.
Gen. Guillot is even more explicit, saying in February that Mexican cartels “threaten U.S. sovereignty.”
“Transnational criminal organizations based in Mexico continue to threaten US sovereignty and territorial integrity through the production and trafficking of fentanyl and other illicit drugs, and the facilitation of unlawful mass migration towards the US southern border.”
Asked in January if he would deploy special forces into Mexico to take out cartels, President Trump replied, “Could happen.” Now, with the order to prepare target packages inside Mexico, a far more likely and ominous possibility looms. Not an invasion, not the “deployment” of U.S. special operators, not boots on the ground, but the kinds of strikes that the U.S. military has become expert at in the Middle East and South Asia.
— Edited by William M. Arkin
This is some really good, in-depth reporting, Ken. Looking forward to the next two parts!
Chinese have made major investments into Mexico, including highways and other infrastructures. The other stuff is “fluff”. I am concerned about the violation of Mexico’s sovereignty. What about civilian casualties due to mistaken identity. This is why I subscribe! Excellent reporting, keep us informed.