Exclusive: Trump Orders Military to "Deter" China

"The new cold war is on"

With all eyes on Iran, Donald Trump has ordered the Pentagon to set its sights on China, a significant departure from the Biden administration.

China has been identified as the major enemy of the future, according to the Interim National Defense Strategic Guidance. It directs the American military to “deter” Beijing in the Indo-Pacific region. The previous strategy merely identified China as a “pacing threat,” meaning that China (rather than Russia) would guide the development of the overall size and shape of the U.S. military in preparing for future wars.

“At a time when all eyes are on the Middle East, the White House is clearly directing the Pentagon to focus more effort on preparing for war with China,” says a senior intelligence official who has read the Guidance. “The new Cold War is on.”

President Obama originally ordered a strategic “Pivot to Asia,” also known as a “Rebalance to Asia,” aiming to increase U.S. engagement and presence in the Asia-Pacific region, acknowledging China's growing economic and military power. The Pivot was supposed to have also symbolized the end of U.S. fighting in the Middle East and an end to the Global War on Terror (GWOT).

President Biden softened the Obama shift, focused as it was on Europe, and hoping to erase any vestiges of the first Trump administration. Biden administration policy has been characterized as “invest, align, and compete,” and focused on building a quasi Asian NATO based upon Australia, Japan, and South Korea.

The Strategic Guidance of the second Trump administration identifies three pillars: Defend the Homeland, Deter China in the Indo-Pacific, and Empower allies and partners to do more. It restores the “peace through strength” slogan of the Reagan years.

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, who had only a minor role in preparing the Strategic Guidance, according to the senior intelligence officer, has directed the Pentagon to focus on three additional objectives: “Reestablish Deterrence, Rebuild Our Military, and Revive the Warrior Ethos.”

Reestablishing Deterrence is merely a catch phrase: the massive multi-billion dollar modernization of building a new ICBM, a new ballistic missile submarine, and a new stealth bomber predates Trump. “Rebuilding” the military also isn’t new, as the supposed shift from the insurgency and small war priorities to big war focus dates from the Obama years. Other than the development of a new air defense oriented fighter plane for the future, the size of the Army, Air Force, and Navy all remain the same, as affirmed by the Fiscal Year 2026 Defense budget released last week.

Hegseth’s main innovation has been reviving the “warrior ethos,” which internal documents describe as focusing on “lethality, meritocracy, accountability, standards, and readiness.” That is the basis for an abandonment of DEI, the rejection of trans soldiers, the objectification of women in the ranks, and a weird obsession with fitness standards.

The Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA), which played a significant role in the B-2 bomber attack on the Iranian Fordo facility, says in its FY 2026 budget request to Congress, that it is “focusing its efforts to counter threats from our strategic nation-state competitors with a focus on the INDOPACIFIC region,” in accordance with the new Guidance.

“China and Russia are expanding and modernizing their nuclear forces, diversifying advanced conventional WMD delivery systems, and actively developing chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) capabilities that directly threaten the homeland and American security,” DTRA says in its budget.

Though Donald Trump has focused on trade imbalances and tariffs when it comes to China, he uses his usual bombastic and exaggerated language referring to Beijing, often labeling the country as an “enemy.” Befitting Trump’s strategic confusion, the president has also stated that “getting along well with China is a very good thing.”

“We’re the hottest country in the world right now,” Donald Trump said at his big beautiful parade. “And our country will soon be greater and stronger than ever before.”

“A piece of paper can be just that,” says the senior intelligence official, “but the subtle shift, and the message to the force, is that China, and not Russia, should be the singular military focus. Yes we continue to war in the Middle East, but if anything, Iran has convinced Trump that peace through strength works, even if his intuition is to make a deal everywhere.”

“In reality,” the official says, “the military doesn’t make deals; it bombs.”

— Edited by William M. Arkin