Declaring War on the American People

Feds prep January 6 show of force. Is it just security theater?

Last week, for the first time ever, Homeland Security designated the January 6, 2025 election certification a “National Security Special Event.” 

The designation is a naked attempt to compensate for the national security establishment’s massive security failure during the Trump-Biden transition. But it is also part of a broader government war on the civic life of the American people. U.S. officials won’t explicitly say it, but they expect a repeat of January 6, as well as civil unrest and violence related to this year’s election.

The designation of National Security Special Events (NSSEs) began after the al-Qaeda attacks on U.S. embassies in Africa in 1998, and they provide considerable additional resources and authorities to the security apparatus. Created to deal with foreign terrorism, the designation adds an additional layer of protection for “special events.” That started with presidential inaugurations and States of the Union addresses but soon devolved into parody when the Super Bowl was designated an NSSE after 9/11. 

The NSSE designation process operated on autopilot after that, a government program that was all about crossing the t’s and dotting the i’s but not actual threats. This became clear on January 6, when no one thought to designate the election certification an NSSE and the government failed to anticipate the events of that day, despite abundant warning signs.

NSSEs are the highest-level of security designation available to the U.S. government. During these events, the Secret Service takes the lead of federal, state and local law enforcement agencies (and even the military and the intelligence agencies) in providing security, calling on additional resources and opening the door for increased intelligence collection. Only the president or the Secretary of Homeland Security has the authority to issue an NSSE designation. Given the vast resources involved, only three or so a year take place. NNSEs “enhance coordination of protective anti-terrorism measures, counterterrorism assets, and restrict access,” according to the Government Accountability Office’s report on Homeland Security’s failure to declare an NSSE on January 6, 2021.   

Homeland Security responded to the scathing GAO report with a list of excuses about as lengthy and unconvincing as the finger pointing and pleading the same department pulled out for the Secret Service following the Trump assassination attempt in July. After January 6, the department claimed that "the non-permitted protest and subsequent attack on the Capitol would not meet the definition of a special event." In other words: Why should we be accountable for failing to do our jobs?

Now, the national security state is back with a vengeance. Somehow, the next January 6 does meet the definition. Unlike in 2021 though, there’s no actual evidence of a similar attack. There could of course be attempts to sabotage the elections in November, and if Trump loses, violence could ensue if he decides to challenge the results. (He’s already refused to say he would accept the results of the election.) But if the feds are concerned, wouldn’t the logical response be to apply the NSSE designation to the entirety of election day or even the whole period between the election and the transition?

There’s also just the option of being better prepared, and taking the entire planning out of the hands of Homeland Security (and the incompetent Secret Service) and lodging it in the Justice Department and the FBI. That is, labeling the period not some “national security” event but just a time of extra vigilance focused solely on law enforcement.

Obviously it makes sense to want to prevent the kind of violence we saw on January 6, where several people died. Given the political climate, it also seems reasonable to believe that something like it could happen again. But Homeland Security is mindlessly beefing up security around the exact same narrow part of the election that was targeted last time. What are the chances lightning strikes the same place twice?

The Secret Service’s own statements hint at the real reason for the beefed up security around the certification: politics. Per the agency’s September 11 press release:

“This marks the first time a National Special Security Event designation has been granted for a Certification of Electoral Votes and follows a request made by the DC Mayor to designate this event a National Special Security Event. Various reports including from the House Select January 6 Committee and the Government Accountability Office also called for the DHS Secretary to consider a National Special Security Event designation for future Certification of Electoral Votes.”

That makes it sound like the Secret Service is just following orders — from the DC Mayor, for example — and that the designation is not related to any specific threat. Aviator-clad Secret Service agents flanking the doors to Congress might make make for a good photo op, projecting the image that the government is taking all of this Very Seriously. But if there is civil unrest around the elections and transition, securing only the certification process and only on January 6th, 2025 would be too little, too late.

In an obscure procurement record I found, the Secret Service does say it anticipates “a very active 2025 USSS National Special Security Event (NSSE) year.” It doesn’t say that it anticipates violence. In fact, we’ve had no federal declaration of the sort. So far, we’ve seen no evidence that the election certification process will be targeted by rioters. “Generals always prepare to fight the last war,” the saying goes, and that appears to be what’s happening here.

The national security apparatus thinks it is doing the right thing in getting the paperwork in order, that preparedness is not a partisan question, that even if Donald Trump is elected, January 6 should still be designated as an NSSE. That’s the theater behind it all, that the paperwork is what’s important.

On the other hand, two assassins have now tried to kill candidate Donald Trump, which federal authorities will take to mean that the threat from Trump’s opponents is just as great as the threat from his supporters. All of this points to an upcoming frenzied and panicked overreaction on the part of the national security apparatus, one that in its zeal could stoke the very fire it’s trying to prevent.

— Edited by William M. Arkin