Leaked Polling Signals Trouble

and one surprising bright spot

An internal U.S. government report I obtained paints a dire picture of the perception held by Muslims abroad of the U.S. amid its support for Israel in the Gaza war. There is, however, one bright spot: Vice President Kamala Harris, whom the report identifies as being able to shift these perceptions to some extent.

Harris has reportedly lobbied the White House to be more sympathetic to Palestinians, and is generally considered to be at least somewhat more doveish on the issue of the Gaza war. The report seems to appreciate this, at several points recommending the administration use her as a messenger on subject of the Palestinians.

We did it, Joe! Now about Gaza… | Getty

Produced by the State Department Global Public Affairs’ Office of Research, the report, marked “SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED,” summarizes opinion surveys of several Muslim-majority countries conducted by the office in March. These surveys ran wide, encompassing almost 18,000 respondents from Muslim-majority countries like Pakistan, Nigeria, and several capital cities in Northern Africa. Intended to ascertain how to improve U.S. reputation with foreign audiences in order to inform its digital messaging (read: propaganda) campaigns, the study’s findings are largely pretty bleak.

“While GPA's [Global Public Affairs] findings broadly show that while USG [U.S Government] messengers are largely powerless to shift opinions among tested audiences, some tested messengers can make slight changes in audience perspectives,” the study says.

The report found that most respondents believe the U.S. to be supporting Israel for three reasons:

1. Hatred of Islam

2. A desire to sell weapons

3. The Israel lobby

Ever since Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel, there has been widespread concern among national security officialdom that the conflict might inspire acts of terrorism against the U.S. “The actions of Hamas and its allies will serve as an inspiration the likes of which we haven't seen since ISIS launched its so-called caliphate several years ago,” FBI Director Christopher Wray testified to Congress that October. Just last week, the State Department’s top intelligence official Brett Holmgren warned of “the global ramifications that 7 October has had, and is likely to have, on the perception of the United States in the region and among most Muslim countries.”

As the study I obtained shows, the State Department’s concerns about the issue run deep. And for good reason, given the steep civilian death toll in Gaza. Such figures are frequently emphasized by regional outlets like Al Jazeera, which the study found to be the most popular news source for a majority (66%) of respondents.

Yet despite the gloomy findings, the study identifies one small avenue for progress, at least from the government’s perspective.

“While there are few messages that resonate across regions to counter this narrative, research shows that the Department [of State] communications should continue to share the United States’ humanitarian aid efforts in Gaza to highlight the United States does support Palestinians.”

It is in relation to that messaging effort that the report identifies Kamala Harris as a particularly effective ambassador. “Use VP Harris as the Messenger on Palestinian Aid from the USG,” the study at one point recommends.

Here are some of the reasons why, according to the report:

• North Africa: “Among audiences in North Africa, Vice President Harris increases the reported awareness that the United States sends humanitarian aid to Palestinians.”

• Nigeria: “Vice President Harris and Ambassador Mustafa Gang are effective messengers to increase awareness that the United States cares about both Israeli and Palestinian civilians.”

• Pakistan: “Vice President Harris…can slightly shift narratives among Pakistani respondents that the United States favors Israel too much.”

As the debate rages on over whether or not President Biden should step aside and allow Harris to take the reins, probably some at the State Department would be relieved if she did.

Note: I’ve included copies of the leaked report below. Investigative reporting like this is extremely time consuming; please become a paid subscriber so I can have the resources to continue doing this and getting you more leaked documents, which I will always share with you whenever it is safe to do so. (A pet peeve of mine is major media’s “just trust us” paraphrasing of documents instead of allowing the public to see the documents for themselves and come to their own conclusions.) And to any leak investigators, I’ll save you some time: I’ve already wiped the metadata on the documents, so you aren’t going to find anything. Good luck!