Iran Attacks American Military Base in Qatar

Tehran already saying they’re sorry

Image from the ground of missiles falling toward Qatar

War has entered a new stage with Iran and the United States now shooting at each other directly. Iran has announced that it has fired missiles at the Central Command headquarters at al Udeid air base in Qatar.

Vice President J.D. Vance says that there will not be U.S. troops on the ground in Iran, but the Trump administration (and CENTCOM commander Gen. Erik "Gorilla" Kurilla) have been readying the moment for air, drone, cyber and space attacks on Iran's military capacity, in concert with Israel.

People are talking about “World War III” as if the exchanges will lead to a nuclear war. But what we’ve been seeing for months, if not years — interceptions of Iranian ships, cat and mouse games in the Gulf, attacks by Iranian proxies, cyber attacks, etc. — is already what WWIII looks like. What will happen with Iran will not be a repeat of the Second World War (or even Iraq in 2003). 

Since June 13, Israel has severely damaged Iranian air and missile capabilities in its bombing campaign. Expect unconventional responses from Tehran and more attacks in the region, both from Iran directly and its friends. According to Farnaz Fassihi of the New York Times: 

“Iran coordinated the attacks on the American air base in Qatar with Qatari officials and gave advanced notice that attacks were coming to minimize casualties, according to three Iranian officials familiar with the plans. The officials said Iran symbolically needed to strike back at the U.S. but at the same time carry it out in a way that allowed all sides an exit ramp; they described it as a similar strategy to 2020 when Iran gave Iraq heads up before firing ballistic missiles an American base in Iraq following the assassination of its top general.”

The National Guard in Los Angeles were warned this weekend to expect Iranian-linked terrorism in the U.S., per briefing leaked to me:

SUMMARY: US is officially in air campaign in Iran.

ANALYST COMMENT: US involvement will highly likely result in counter strikes on US bases and facilities in CENTCOM as well as likely activate Iran and other foreign terrorist organizations cells abroad including the US to conduct strikes against US persons and facilities.

RECOMMENDATION: all units should increase situational awareness for any threat activity for at least the next 24 hours.

The Qatari Ministry of Defense says: “Qatari air defense successfully intercepted a missile attack targeting Al-Udeid Air Base.”

— Edited by William M. Arkin