ICE has unleashed a war on “illegal” immigrants, claiming some wild successes. And it is undertaking the largest expansion in its 12 year history, an eight billion dollar program that will more than double its existing police force.
But none of its numbers add up.
ICE brags that it has already deported two MILLION since Donald Trump took office — an unprecedented number — with the resources it already has. And yet, there is no evidence whatsoever that ICE has deported or forced two million people to leave.
ICE claims that young men and women are flocking to join, with applicants lined up around every corner. There’s no evidence to substantiate that these are quality or professional job seekers. And if true, why is ICE also undertaking an expedited and “critical” social media enlistment effort to the tune of $25 million?
Meanwhile, ICE’s own internal satisfaction surveys show that the agency is one of, if not the worst place to work in government.
High profile raids at Home Depots and masked ICE agents stalking America’s cities can make it seem like ICE is an efficient force. But that’s all part of the show. The numbers tell a different story.
On X last week, DHS posted that since Trump took office, ICE’s efforts to remove immigrants have resulted in “2 MILLION GONE.” That’s 15 percent of the estimated 14 million “illegals” in the country. If that number was accurate, ICE would be on track to deport every illegal immigrant in six years. Of course, that number is false.
The claim stems from an analysis conducted by the Center for Immigration Studies (whose tagline touts its mission of “low-immigration”). The study is based on a Bureau of Labor Statistics survey which showed a 2.2 million drop in the foreign born population between January and July 2025, with 1.6 million of those categorized as illegal immigrants.
It is a statistical analysis, from macro analysis and public opinion polls, not actual government data. A warning affixed to the study in fine print suggests that despite ICE’s advertising blitz, the agency is not throwing illegals out of the country at this lightning rate.
The study’s authors also concede that the figure may just be a result of “reluctance by immigrants to participate in the survey or to identify as foreign-born.” Yeah, no shit.
But who knows what the real numbers are? Since February, the Department of Homeland Security has stopped providing raw numbers on immigration arrests and deportations, choosing instead to tweet out questionable statistics. The Office of Homeland Security Statistics (OHSS) has not updated its monthly enforcement count since before Trump was elected.
The nonprofit Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC) finds that based on data submitted to Congress, ICE’s daily removals flatlined in March. A July report from NBC based on internal ICE data found that while arrests are way up, actual deportations lag far behind as pending asylum cases and court orders throw sand in the gears. So much for 2,000,000!
When it comes to ICE’s own personnel head count, the agency says that it has received over 150,000 applicants for new ICE enforcement jobs. (DHS did not respond to a request for further information about this statistic.)
But if the 150,000 number is accurate — that is, with ICE attracting qualified applicants — why undertake a new and highly expedited social media blitz to recruit new cadets? And why hire a former Superman actor to beg Gen-Z to enlist?
Just take a look at some of those ads that ICE is currently running:
Though ICE says Americans are lining up to join, it is also undertaking a “national launch and awareness saturation initiative” to fill different social media platforms with recruitment ads. But one look makes it clear that the agency’s social media campaign is amateurish and offensive at the same time, a freak show of Trumpian memes and post 9/11 fear mongering: a far cry from anything resembling effective government outreach.
In one new recruitment ad Uncle Sam takes off his stars and stripes top hat and fits on an ICE baseball cap. In another, he stands at a crossroads, scratching his head confusedly at a sign post that reads “law and order.” At least so far, Uncle Sam has yet to try on a balaclava.
ICE’s recruitment posters on Instagram have “likes” hovering in the low thousands, closer to the batting average of a struggling influencer than a federal agency with 260,000 employees and twice as many followers. The ads they are posting are comic book-like in appearance, and they are not earning views that would indicate either success or effectiveness.
And why would anyone, except those driven by desperation or ideology, want to work for the least popular law enforcement agency in the first place? This year's job satisfaction survey has been abruptly canceled, but the numbers from 2023 paint a grim picture of the mood on the inside: ICE ranked 418 out of 432 federal agencies for favorability.
Despite the cooked-up deportation statistics and the terrible social media posts, the public, it should be pointed out, isn’t buying what ICE is selling. According to polling by Pew Research from this summer, Americans do not support ICE on deporting immigrants to foreign prisons, suspending asylum applications, or stripping away temporary protection status. A June national Quinnipiac University poll of registered voters found that 56 percent of Americans disapprove of how ICE is doing its job, while only 39 percent approve.
ICE’s role in arrests and deportations has polarized the public towards the agency, but former ICE and DHS officials say that a toxic inferiority complex and longstanding lack of leadership has cultivated an internal culture that is neither professional nor humane. ICE’s rapid growth, oriented towards the most radical elements of Trump’s base and their enablers in Congress, is sure to make the problem worse. There are two million reasons why more attention should be paid to what ICE is actually accomplishing. Or, at the very least, a dozen.
—
is an independent journalist who runs the newsletter— Edited by William M. Arkin
 | A guest post by
|
Maybe if they didn’t wear masks and act like thugs kidnapping people off the streets they might get a bit of respect. Everyone deserves due process.
This post seems to challenge ICE’s efficiency, which makes some sense from a rhetorical standpoint given the emphasis of so many conservatives on efficiency. I can’t help, however, but wonder if we have so abandoned our humanity that appeals to human rights, or law, or the consequences for communities seem to so consistently escape attention?
History offers us a disappointing answer, which might also explain at least some current events. https://shahidbuttar.substack.com/p/its-not-about-kirk-or-kimmel-or-colbert
Ken includes a parallel critique of credibility, but the tendency to obscure should not surprise us given how consistently this administration has lied outright about immigration. I discussed that theme when Trump deployed ICE goon squads to LA and DC. https://open.substack.com/pub/shahidbuttar/p/promises-made-promises-betrayed
Finally, it’s interesting to observe the bravado of the ICE recruitment ads that Ken shared here. To what extent are they intended to appeal to men with fragile egos, like the president? https://open.substack.com/pub/shahidbuttar/p/the-rise-of-the-fragile-tough-guy?r=97w99&utm_medium=ios